Denver is mired in another summer of poor air quality. On hot days, the airwaves fill with advisories warning people not to exercise too heavily. As of last week, the state has issued alerts on 22 days that the air might be unhealthy for sensitive groups. On August 8, the Environmental Protection Agency said the region failed to meet its ozone standards and that it must take more drastic measures to clean it up.
One major contributor to air pollution? Cars. So Colorado Governor Jared Polis is looking to the roads for possible solutions. In January, the governor signed an executive order directing the state to explore ways to promote exhaust-free electric vehicles. Now, Polis’ directive is bearing fruit. The state’s Air Quality Control Commission today is expected to finalize a zero-emission vehicle mandate, meaning Colorado joins California and nine other states that require a certain percentage of vehicles automakers sell be electric. In Colorado’s case, the state estimates 6 percent of all new cars sold will be electric when the mandate takes effect in 2023.
Colorado is the first such state to receive industry support for an electric vehicle mandate, and that should help get more electric cars on lots as early as January 2020. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and Global Automakers, the industry groups representing roughly 99 percent of Colorado’s vehicle market, agreed to the mandate in exchange for some concessions in how automakers can earn credits for the program.
Colorado’s mandate could accelerate electric vehicle sales across the West. As the first inland ZEV state, it faces particular challenges. Automakers have said that manufacturing and shipping cars to new markets can be difficult, but with Colorado essentially carving out a third ZEV zone, more cars will have to flow to the middle of the country.
Through the Regional Electric Vehicle Plan for the West, eight states have agreed to install enough charging stations to make it possible for electric cars to drive on the region’s long highway stretches. Neighboring states haven’t offered the same kind of incentives as Colorado — Utah, which has its own air quality problem, will actually start charging hybrid and electric vehicle drivers next year to make up for lost gas tax revenue — but the hope among electric vehicle proponents is that Colorado’s work will trickle beyond its borders.
Colorado was already a top-five state for electric vehicle sales, according to Auto Alliance numbers from 2018. But availability has been a problem. According to a survey done by environmental groups in June, of the 41 total plug-in electric models available in the U.S., only 24 were on lots in the Denver area. In Grand Junction, there were just two.
The new agreement is meant to diversify that market. With companies like Tesla and Hyundai producing electric SUVs and Ford teasing an electric F-150 pickup, Colorado wants to offer the kind of models that will appeal to a Subaru-loving population.
“With a state this large and diverse, you need models with longer battery ranges, you need models that have all-wheel drive,” said Sophie Shulman, the chief of innovative mobility at the Colorado Department of Transportation. “Automakers are making more of those, and we want them to be options here.”
Going electric on the roads could help air quality. A 2017 study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that traffic and oil and gas drilling each accounted for 30 to 40 percent of local ozone production along the Front Range. In the urban corridor between Denver and Boulder, traffic was the main contributor (oil and gas played a larger role farther north), and it’s expected to worsen as the population grows.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment estimates the mandate will cut 300 million tons of greenhouse gases by 2030, while also cutting ozone precursors. Frank Flocke, an NCAR scientist and co-author of the report, said that electrifying cars is a “good first step.” Still, his study found that an outsized source of pollution came from construction vehicles and trucks, sectors that won’t be touched by the mandate.
“Does this revolutionize air quality in this region? Not in the next few years,” Flocke said. “My guess is it may just keep things constant as the area grows. But every step in the right direction is a good step to take.”
A quirk of the ZEV mandate allows automakers to gain some credits from selling cars out of state. Combined with the credits for introducing models earlier, some environmentalists worry the mandate is watered down enough that it won’t reach its potential. If sales boom, those concessions could be offset, but some advocates say Colorado could have done better.
“Without the federal government doing anything, it’s important that states strike good deals with auto companies to get more electric vehicles,” said Dan Becker of the Safe Climate Campaign, an advocacy group that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “It’s a good thing for Colorado to do. It’s just too bad that it may not achieve what the state wants it to achieve.”
The state, however, has been working hard to reduce the friction to owning an electric vehicle. This year, the legislature passed several electric vehicle bills, including extending a tax credit program for purchasing and leasing electric cars through 2025, and clearing the way for utilities to install charging stations. In a nod to a common complaint among electric vehicle drivers, the state even introduced a fine for drivers who park gas-powered cars in front of chargers.
CDOT’s Shulman said that, ultimately, the best way to boost sales is to make electric cars more visible, which the Colorado deal will do.
“With more options available, it’s good for Colorado and, of course, folks can come in to our state to buy their vehicles,” Shulman said. “When more neighbors have them in their driveway, more people are talking about them, it has a huge impact in getting the benefits out earlier.”