The mid-May showers that turned lawns across southwest Idaho into a soggy mush and muddied foothill trails were embraced at the Boise-headquartered National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The rain, of course, delays the beginning of fire season, but this year it might offset an issue that was political in nature.
“This is helpful for us because of the furlough,” spokesperson Jessica Gardetto said last week, as sheets of rain pounded the NIFC offices. “It was a push after the furlough to get everyone hired and onboarded.”
NIFC staffers head into the fire season behind on preparations and resource planning thanks to the 35-day federal government shutdown that took place during December and January. Federal employees deemed nonessential were furloughed, meaning much of the NIFC was shut down during a critical winter month that’s used to gear up for the summer ahead. Fortunately, Mother Nature may be fire suppression agencies’ saving grace this year. Wet weather throughout the Rockies — it snowed this week in Wyoming and Colorado — has the fire outlook favorable in that range, thus giving NIFC and the agencies it works with the chance to play catch-up.
Meteorologist Bryan Henry, assistant program manager of the NIFC’s predictive service department, was thrilled with the rain. “What the general public sees as a nice day in August, I see as a bad day for us,” he said. “I couldn’t be happier about what I see outside.”
The NIFC serves as the West’s wildland firefighting hub, coordinating the activities of state and federal fire suppression teams that are shuffled around the country as fires spark. Its nearly 650 year-round staffers at the 55-acre campus near the Boise airport form the intellectual prowess behind fire suppression — the brains behind the brawn, if you will. Much of its work coordinating the nation’s fire agencies remains constant, regardless of weather, which is why the winter planning period is so crucial.
Even though most Western forests are blanketed in snow during December and January, NIFC usually buzzes with activity then. Operations managers, scientists, communications specialists, and an army of support staff spend time assessing what-ifs and planning for worst-case scenarios. Among the issues they try to sort through include contingency plans for summer staffing shortages on the front fire lines.
“None of that happened,” Henry said. “We missed out on a whole month’s worth of outlooks. Through the furlough, we lost out on all that data, and one thing we like to see as meteorologists is a consistent set of data. There was a break in that continuity. Luckily, nothing dramatic happened in the weather during that time.”
In spring, NIFC staffers onboard seasonal fire crews, conduct preparedness reviews to assure firefighting resources meet the standards for fire and aviation operations, finalize contracts for resources — firefighting aircraft, caterers and shower units, and retardant — and attend annual trainings. By this time of the year, officials have also typically begun to deploy smokejumpers — specialized firefighters who parachute into remote areas — where they predict they’ll see the first flare-ups.
“They’re all still here, and we don’t think they’re going to leave anytime soon, unless the conditions change,” Gardetto said. The weather offered a reprieve in other areas, too: “We were worried that we weren’t going to be able to get everyone hired before fire activity started occurring. Thankfully, everyone worked hard and worked overtime, and we’re caught up.”
That’s good news for those outside the Rockies, where the fire risk is much higher this year. According to the agency’s latest predictions, forests west of the Cascades and in southern Arizona are at particular risk of burning in June, and California is expected to be fire-prone once again later this summer.
“From a fire weather and fuels perspective, there is cause for concern in Washington state,” Henry said. “The ongoing cool, wet period has not been sufficient enough to alleviate the concerns arising from the prior dry conditions. For this reason, there is an elevated potential for above normal fire activity across most of the state through the summer months.”
Elsewhere, though, agency meteorologists expect the cooler, wetter weather to extend into July. Federal fire suppression costs eclipsed $3 billion for the first time in history last year, but officials expect a drop in the overall 2019 expenditures thanks largely to favorable weather. Alas, predictions are fickle.
The last time Henry felt this good leading into fire season was in 2017, and 1.38 million acres ended up burning in California alone that year. An abnormally hot or prolonged summer could undo this spring’s benefits, too — research has linked higher average summer temperatures with larger and longer-burning fires, so a prolonged heat wave could wipe out the gains fire agencies have made this spring. Furthermore, new vegetation drenched by this spring’s rains could become tinder if fall rain and winter snow arrives late.
Accordingly, Henry is proceeding with cautious optimism. “I’m most concerned when I’m highly confident,” he said.
